The Toronto Blue Jays‘ handling of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might best be summarized by Roman philosopher Cicero’s mantra: More is lost by indecision than wrong decision. Step by step, the Jays have put themselves in a terrible position, with the player holding all of the leverage.
But Guerrero still wears their uniform with a season left until he reaches free agency, giving the Jays one last chance to build a beachhead into a future that is otherwise shrouded in murk. The team should meet with him, apologize for wasting his time and wave the white flag in the negotiations.
Last week, the deadline Guerrero set for a contract extension came and went without a deal in place. Assuming Guerrero isn’t asking the Blue Jays to match Juan Soto‘s $765 million contract, they should just say yes to whatever they said no to a week ago.
Allowing Guerrero to reach free agency makes no sense given the Jays’ handling of his career and his contract situation. Time after time, Toronto leadership put off a hard decision on Guerrero, and now the team has to pay the price. The only question is whether the cost comes in Guerrero’s departure, or in his retention.
The Blue Jays’ path to this point reminds of another team who let indecision cloud the impending free agency of a star player: the Los Angeles Angels and Shohei Ohtani.
The Angels went 73-89 the season before the final year of Ohtani’s contract but still elected to hold on to Ohtani and try to make a run. The Jays went 74-88 in 2024, and their hope is to contend for a playoff spot this year with Guerrero. That’s hardly out of the question. With Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios, they could have a good rotation. If Daulton Varsho suitably recovers from rotator cuff surgery, and if Bo Bichette bounces back, and if Andres Gimenez continues to play elite defense, they could be strong up the middle. If whatever was in Jeff Hoffman‘s physical exam that prompted the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles to blow up agreements with him doesn’t slow him, he could be a solid closer.
Unfortunately for the Jays, part of what should be a hypercompetitive American League East this year, good and solid might not cut it. The New York Yankees are the defending AL champions; the Boston Red Sox are dramatically improved with the additions of Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler and Alex Bregman; the Orioles have their great young core of talent; and the Tampa Bay Rays are always better than expected. Toronto could also finish fifth again.
This 2025 Hail Mary attempt to contend instead of entering a rebuild defers, once again, Guerrero’s status. If the Jays are struggling in July, they could trade him. But with his impending free agency, they might get back only half of what his value might’ve been last summer. If they hold onto him throughout the season and he walks away to another team, they would receive only minimal draft pick compensation for a homegrown star.
How different this all could have been. Some players don’t want to play in Canada for one reason or another. Guerrero was born in Canada — the son of Hall of Fame outfielder Vladimir Guerrero Sr. who starred in Montreal — and signed with the Jays in 2015 for $3.9 million. The Jays’ front office delayed his promotion to the big leagues in 2019, costing him a full year of service time, but Guerrero demonstrated what everyone was so excited about, hitting 15 homers and showing great bat-to-ball skills. In his second full season, he clubbed 48 homers and finished second in the AL MVP race.
His production waned, however, in 2022 and 2023, and along the way there was concern about his conditioning. The Jays could’ve worked out a long-term deal with him years before he hit free agency, as the Kansas City Royals did with Bobby Witt Jr. and as the Cleveland Guardians did with Jose Ramirez. But the Jays waited, which is not surprising: A hallmark of the Jays’ front office in recent years is that it doesn’t often re-sign its own players. As research by Paul Hembekides shows since TK, the Jays re-signed Jose Berrios to a seven-year, $131 million deal and Randal Grichuk to a five-year, $52 million contract. Nobody else got more than three years.
After starting slowly last season, Guerrero rebounded — in a big way. From May 27 to July 30, he batted .321, with as many extra-base hits (32) as strikeouts (32). This was the Vladdy Jr. everyone in the industry seemed to be waiting for, and it provided another inflection point for the Jays. In July of 2024, Toronto was in the same spot the Los Angeles Angels were with Shohei Ohtani in the summer of 2022, when the Angels could’ve traded Ohtani with another 15 months of team control and gotten a major haul in return.
And there was another factor for the Jays last July: Soto was headed into free agency and would inevitably raise the ceiling for sluggers. That left Toronto with a choice, in the middle of a lost season — either push to sign Guerrero to a long-term deal before the market was impacted by Soto, or trade him at his maximum value.
The Jays did what the Angels did with Ohtani. They waited.
Guerrero was even better in the last two months of the season, finishing the year with a .323 average and a .940 OPS, winning a Silver Slugger, finishing sixth in the MVP race. With the Jays out of the playoffs, they had all of October and early November to pick a path. They could’ve pushed for a long-term deal, before Soto started meeting with teams, and if they determined that they couldn’t or didn’t want to sign him, they could’ve put him on the trade market. The feedback rival executives continued to get was: Vladdy wasn’t available.
But the Jays’ front office waited. Again.
And it began a dalliance with Soto, picking a fight against the most valuable franchise in the majors, the Yankees, and the richest owner, the New York Mets‘ Steve Cohen. Edward Rogers, the owner of the Jays, was among those to meet with Soto and his agent Scott Boras.
The Jays’ participation was probably doomed from the start — only Soto knows for sure — but in theory, this could’ve worked for them in this way: As bidders, the Jays had firsthand and early knowledge of how Soto’s contract might affect the market for other players — such as Guerrero. The bidding for Soto went through multiple rounds, over a few weeks, and it was as if the Jays were benefiting from insider trading, all aboveboard.
Once the numbers for Soto went over $600 million and zoomed toward infinity and beyond, the Jays had to know Guerrero’s ask would be enormous. The Jays had knowledge other teams did not, and once more, they had the option of pushing the talks to a resolution — deal or no deal — and if not, then trade him.
Instead, the Jays waited. Again.
Their doubts have been rational, given what the best first basemen have been paid in recent years. It has been more than a decade since any first baseman got $200 million, let alone $350 million or $450 million or $500 million.
But given the Jays’ participation in the Soto sweepstakes, the concern over Guerrero’s defensive position shouldn’t be a factor. Toronto was apparently willing to pay Soto something close to the monster deal he got with the Mets, and it’s not as if Soto is a good defender; there will probably be a time midway through his 15-year career that he will shift into a designated hitter role. If the Jays had signed him, he would’ve been a DH at some point, and the Jays were OK with that.
“If you’re going to pay Soto or Vladdy, you’re paying for the bat,” one rival executive said. “You’re paying for the power and the contact with damage, for a player at a young age.”
Soto became a free agent at age 26. Guerrero turns 26 next month and will be a free agent in the fall. He might not be the hitter Soto is, but he is one of the game’s best hitters, and for now, he is a Blue Jay. Right now, it’s a one-bidder negotiation.
When the Jays pursued Ohtani, meeting with him in Florida, they were going against the Los Angeles Dodgers and other teams. When they talked to Soto a few months ago, they had to vie with the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and other teams for his attention.
In the Ohtani negotiations, the Jays never had a take-down price, the number at which they were assured they would sign him. They bid into a negotiation silo, not knowing for sure what other teams had offered, and Ohtani picked the Dodgers. With Soto, the Jays kept upping their ante, not knowing where the numbers would end, never sure if Soto would actually seriously consider their offer or if there even were a number that would get them the slugger.
With Guerrero, there is no question whether he would sign to play in Toronto, as there was with Ohtani and Soto; Guerrero has played with the Jays his entire career, and says he wants to continue playing in Toronto. In Guerrero’s case, there is a take-down number. As he said last week after the negotiations stalled, “I have my number.” The Jays know that number, in a way they didn’t know it with Ohtani and Soto and many other stars who’ve refused to take their money in recent winters.
For the Jays, desperately in need of a franchise face, knowledge of the take-down number is worth everything.
And they should say yes to it. Today.