2025 PGA Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch

Xander Schauffele agrees with the thought. He’s read all about its name, too.  

“I guess writers,” he said, “call it horses for courses.”

Indeed. We’re a rhyming bunch, for sure. But the idea is a basic one — players play well at certain courses — and it’ll be one to consider as you try to find a winner at this week’s PGA Championship. While, at best, tracks hold majors once every so many years, there are a handful, like Quail Hollow this week, that also host PGA Tour events annually, giving players (and gamblers) some experience in which to work. 

So who answers the mail at Quail? As you look to make your selections, here are the top 10s at the track over the past 10 years, which includes the top 10 at the 2017 PGA:

(Note: The 2020 event was not played, and Quail Hollow hosted the 2022 Presidents Cup.)

2015 Wells Fargo Championship
Rory McIlroy, 17-under
Xander Schauffele, 12-under
Byeong Hun An, 9-under
Sungjae Im, 6-under
Jason Day
Mackenzie Hughes, 5-under
Denny McCarthy
Max Homa, 4-under
Sepp Straka
Taylor Pendrith, 3-under
Russell Henley
Grayson Murray 

2016 Wells Fargo Championship
James Hahn, 9-under
Roberto Castro   
Justin Rose, 8-under
Rickie Fowler, 7-under
Andrew Loupe
Rory McIlroy
Phil Mickelson
Lucas Glover, 6-under
Fabian Gomez, 5-under
Danny Lee 

2017 PGA Championship
Justin Thomas, 8-under
Francesco Molinari, 6-under 
Louis Oosthuizen
Patrick Reed
Rickie Fowler, 5-under
Hideki Matsuyama
Graham DeLaet, 4-under
Kevin Kisner
Jason Day, 1-under
Matt Kuchar
Jordan L Smith
Chris Stroud 

2018 Wells Fargo Championship
Jason Day, 12-under
Nick Watney, 10-under
Aaron Wise
Bryson DeChambeau, 8-under
Paul Casey, 7-under
Phil Mickelson
Peter Uihlein
Patrick Reed, 6-under
Emiliano Grillo, 5-under
Luke List
Sam Saunders
Charl Schwartzel 

2019 Wells Fargo Championship
Max Homa, 15-under
Joel Dahmen, 12-under
Justin Rose, 11-under
Paul Casey, 9-under
Jason Dufner
Rickie Fowler
Sergio Garcia
Rory McIlroy, 7-under
Keith Mitchell
Pat Perez
Kyle Stanley
Jhonattan Vegas 

2021 Wells Fargo Championship
Rory McIlroy, 10-under
Abraham Ancer, 9-under
Viktor Hovland, 8-under
Keith Mitchell 
Gary Woodland, 7-under 
Luke List, 5-under
Patrick Reed
Matt Wallace
Bryson DeChambeau, 4-under
Aaron Wise 

2023 Wells Fargo Championship
Wyndham Clark, 19-under
Xander Schauffele, 15-under
Harris English, 12-under
Tyrrell Hatton
Tommy Fleetwood, 11-under
Adam Scott
Michael Kim, 10-under
Denny McCarthy, 8-under
K.H. Lee
Max Homa
Corey Conners
Sungjae Im
Brendon Todd 

2024 Wells Fargo Championship 
Rory McIlroy, 17-under
Xander Schauffele, 12-under
Byeong Hun An, 9-under
Sungjae Im, 6-under
Jason Day
Mackenzie Hughes, 5-under
Denny McCarthy
Max Homa, 4-under
Sepp Straka
Taylor Pendrith, 3-under
Russell Henley
Grayson Murray 

With that, members of our staff have each made both a to-win and a sleeper selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis. 

2025 PGA Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch

Adam Christensen 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +500. Whoever wins the PGA Championship will make a ton of birdies, and Scottie Scheffler is hitting the ball so close to the hole right now it’s impossible for him not to make birdies. His game was ‘off’ to start the year, but he figured it out and is hitting Quail Hollow full of confidence. That’s dangerous for the rest of the field (outside of McIlroy, of course).

Sleeper pick: Russell Henley, +6,000. There are not many golfers on earth who have played more consistently than Russell Henley this year. The main concern in picking Henley is his lack of distance at a course that will favor the heavy hitters, but he has been so accurate this year that maybe he can overcome that. If he has a great week putting and chipping, he could steal a championship.

Connor Federico  

To-win: Ludvig Aberg, +1,600. The Swedish star played his way into contention again at Augusta National. His putter was hot, and his driver was on fire. Although he has no professional history at Quail, the 25-year-old has too much talent to ignore. Justin Thomas was just 24 when he launched into stardom with his first major win here in 2017. I expect Ludvig to walk a similar, multiple-major-winning road, starting this week by lifting the Wanamaker.

Sleeper pick: Max Homa, +8,000. At Quail Hollow, he won his first Tour event at the 2019 Wells Fargo, and he dominated the 2022 Presidents Cup, finishing with four wins and no losses in his United States debut. Home is overcoming some recent struggles, but a T12 finish at the Masters proves he can contend for a major championship. I like his odds considering all the success he’s had in Charlotte.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +500. I’m actually hoping for an epic Scheffler-McIlroy Sunday duel, but ultimately casting my vote for the World No. 1. Fresh off a big win in Texas and with a week of rest, Scottie will be the man to beat at Quail Hollow, and I believe this will be the week where he gets his major mojo back on track.

Sleeper pick: Max Homa, +8,000. The man’s had an admittedly tough season thus far, but his bright spot to date was the Masters, where he finished T12. That gives me some hope for his performance this week, at a course where he’s played well in the past, winning the Wells Fargo Championship in 2019 and finishing T8 the past two years. If any track can help extricate Homa from the funk he’s currently in, it’s this one.

Maddi MacClurg  

To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +1,050. Coming off a recent win at LIV Golf Korea, DeChambeau is my pick to win the PGA Championship. Quail Hollow is a course that rewards length off the tee, and no one leverages power like Bryson. The layout entices players to take aggressive lines — a challenge he welcomes — and pays back dividends to those who succeed. If his irons are dialed, I think he’s got this one in the bag. 

Sleeper pick: Jordan Spieth, +4,000. Recent flashes, like his final-round 62 at the Byron Nelson, hint that he’s not far off from a win. Sure, Quail Hollow favors the long ball, but it also requires imagination and grit, two things Spieth has in spades. If the putter heats up, don’t be surprised if he goes low. And with the career grand slam just out of reach, it could be the push he needs to get it done.

Kris McCormack 

To-win: Rory Mcllroy, +500. Rory has won four times at Quail Hollow. He also finished T22 when it hosted the 2017 PGA Championship. This is one of his favorite tracks — long, demanding and perfect for his aggressive driving.

Sleeper pick: Joaquin Niemann, +2,700. Niemann has been one of the most in-form players globally, securing his third LIV Golf victory of the year in April at Mexico City. Earlier in the season, he also clinched wins at LIV Golf Adelaide and Singapore, demonstrating his ability to perform under pressure and maintain consistency across different courses.

Zephyr Melton 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +500. It’s not the sexiest pick, but it’s the most sensible. After being a bit off to start the year, Scottie found his old form two weeks ago in Texas. If he can continue to hit the ball like he did there, it’ll be major No. 3 for Scottie come Sunday evening.

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +12,000. Why not a little magic ahead of the Ryder Cup for the captain? Stranger things have happened.

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Rory McIlroy, +500. Boring, I know. But I picked this way back in December, if that counts for anything. If you want to go a little deeper, Sungjae Im (+6,600) is also a solid play at Quail. 

Sleeper pick: Stephan Jaeger, +20,000. Big course. Big hitter. Jaeger finished 21st at last year’s Wells Fargo, where he shot a 65 in the second round, so he’s gone low in the past. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +1,050. I had Rory earmarked for this one before he won the Masters so I’ll zag a bit. Bryson has been playing good but not great golf over the past month. He blew leads in Miami, Augusta and Mexico before finally getting over the line in Korea. This course should suit him well, and he has been a fixture at majors over the past year. Easy to see the slightly less big golfer getting it done this week. If you want to look slightly down the board, I like Shane Lowry at +5,000.

Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +14,000. I picked Justin Rose as my Masters sleeper and that paid off. There were legitimate reasons for that selection. This time, I’m just going to go off vibes. Rickie hasn’t played well since a T18 at the Cognizant in early March. But he finished T5 the last time the PGA Championship was at Quail Hollow and has good history at the Wells Fargo Championship, including a win in 2012 and a fourth-place finish in 2019. No time like the present to turn back the clock.

Josh Sens

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +500 If he plays so-so, he contends. If he plays well, he wins. The latter seems more likely. This is one of those rare cases where the odds are a pretty fair reflection of a guy’s actual chances. 

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +12,000. A past PGA Champ who clearly relishes big moments. A good opportunity for him to stir up chatter about his potential role as a Ryder Cup player-captain.

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