Tears have been shed. Heads have been shaved. Blimps have been moored.
The movie that broke the all-time record for nominations came out nearly a year ago, while the favorite to win best picture hit theaters in September.
So, yes, it’s time for both a reset and a coronation, time to (finally) close the book on an awards season that, until recently, felt short on surprises and long on … well, just plain long.
The exhaustive and exhausting buildup to the Oscars is nearly over and the two movies that have the best shot at winning the top prize — Paul Thomas Anderson’s darkly comedic action-thriller “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s genre-defying American horror story “Sinners” — also happen to be the best films released in 2025.
There’s no bad choice. But choose we must — and not just for best picture. Twenty-three other categories will be awarded Sunday at the 98th Academy Awards too. So start up your Oscar pools and read on for final Oscar predictions. We’re almost at the finish line.
Picture
“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
Will win: “One Battle After Another”
Could surprise: “Sinners”
In terms of worthiness, “One Battle” vs. “Sinners” is very much a 1A/1B situation, with Anderson’s epic having the slight edge. But with the Oscars, quality is often secondary to an awards narrative. Both movies have cultural relevance. Both won critical acclaim and, to a degree, commercial success. (Though “One Battle” wasn’t the blockbuster “Sinners” was, it still grossed more than any other movie in Anderson’s career.) “Sinners” scored 16 Oscar nominations, the most in history; “One Battle” was close behind with 13.
“One Battle” won with the Producers Guild, the precursor that most accurately predicts best picture. It also beat “Sinners” at the British Academy Film Awards. “Sinners” landed the cast prize at the Actor Awards, which is not a reliable precursor but did give Coogler’s movie a big moment in front of an audience while Oscar ballots were out. Does the academy’s preferential voting system, in which members rank the best picture nominees, benefit either movie? Some say it favors “Sinners.” But the PGA, which also uses ranked voting, went with “One Battle.”
Might visibility decide it? Coogler and his “Sinners” team have been a ubiquitous presence at events throughout the awards season. Anderson mostly shuns campaigning, preferring the work to speak for itself. “‘Sinners’ feels like a genuine celebration of Black achievement and joy, which feels like something,” says a veteran awards consultant. “Outside of loving PTA and his movies, ‘One Battle’ doesn’t have a personality. They might leave some awards on the table.” But he thinks it’s still winning best picture. So do I.
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
Will win: Anderson
If “Sinners” does win best picture, how’s this for a consolation: Anderson, who came into the year having never won despite 11 nominations, will go home with two Oscars — director and adapted screenplay.
Lead actress
(Agata Grzybowska / Focus Features)
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
Will win: Buckley
I’ll always associate Buckley and “Hamnet” with the memory of leaving the movie’s premiere at Telluride and seeing a woman sobbing so hard that a friend had to prop her up against the wall to keep her from collapsing in the walkway. As I wrote afterward, “Buckley’s searching, searing turn seems destined to be lauded countless times these next few months, a performance that is as impossible to ignore as the character she plays.” She’s won everything else. Here’s her final reward.
Lead actor
(Warner Bros. Entertainment)
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Will win: Jordan
Could surprise: Chalamet
Is it arrogant to want to be great? Is it presumptuous to say that an actor has an Oscar in the bag two weeks before the ceremony? I’ve been pondering these questions since I sent out a newsletter saying that Chalamet would be winning this Oscar “in a walk.” After that landed in inboxes, I heard from a number of voters conveying their reservations about young Timothée. Basically, their hesitancy could be boiled down to, as one producer wrote, “He’s a cocky little s—.”
This perception mostly seems to come from Chalamet’s speech at the Screen Actors Guild Awards last year, when, accepting the lead actor honor for playing Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown,” he had the audacity to say that he was “in pursuit of greatness.”
“I know people don’t usually talk like that, but I want to be one of the greats,” he continued, thereby violating an unwritten Hollywood code that you need to at least pretend to be humble or you’ll find yourself on the receiving end of a Vogue headline accusing you of “manosphere-enabled overconfidence.”
After not winning at the BAFTAs or the Actor Awards, it would appear that Chalamet is probably not going to take the Oscar this year, because A) people conflate the character of Marty Mauser, the talented, selfish self-promoter, with the actor playing him; B) Chalamet’s “too young” and needs to “pay his dues” so he can win a decade from now for a movie that, knowing the Oscars, will be the 15th best of his career (“Hooah!”); and C) people think he’s a “cocky little s—.”
If Jordan wins as he did at the Actor Awards for his career-best work playing identical twins Smoke and Stack in “Sinners,” good on him. I’ve talked with Jordan a number of times over the years, and he seems genuinely humble about his life and work. He’s a movie star. (Like Chalamet!) And he brings his mom to awards shows. (Like Chalamet … when he’s not taking girlfriend Kylie Jenner.) Maybe he even respects ballet and opera. (Unlike Chalamet?)
Supporting actress
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Will win: Madigan
Could surprise: Taylor
Mosaku narrates “Sinners,” delivers in several key scenes, took the BAFTA honor and could easily win the Oscar if there’s a “Sinners” wave. Taylor sets the table for “One Battle,” won the Globe and could easily win the Oscar if there’s a “One Battle” wave. Madigan earned the only nomination “Weapons” received, a bad sign, but she appeals to old-guard academy voters, even if her movie might not. (The “Sentimental Value” women will split the movie’s support.) So who wins? Who knows. But does playing an iconic character that inspires a super-popular Halloween costume count for something? I’m betting it will.
Supporting actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
Will win: Penn
Could surprise: Skarsgård
Chalamet gets dinged for aspiring to greatness, and Penn’s about to win his third Oscar simply for being great — and not talking about it. Nor showing up to the BAFTAs and Actor Awards to collect prizes. (Maybe they wouldn’t let him smoke, which, judging from an ashtray on the table, he did throughout the Golden Globes.) If he wins, Penn will join Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, Ingrid Bergman, Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand and Walter Brennan (who died from emphysema … just a heads-up, Sean) as three-time Oscar winners. (Katharine Hepburn is the only actor to win four.)
Adapted screenplay
“Bugonia,” Will Tracy
“Frankenstein,” Guillermo del Toro
“Hamnet,” Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
“One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams,” Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
Will win: “One Battle After Another”
And here’s that second Oscar for Anderson.
Original screenplay
(Eli Ade / Warner Bros. Pictures)
“Blue Moon,” Robert Kaplow
“It Was Just an Accident,” Jafar Panahi; script collaborators: Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
“Marty Supreme,” Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value,” Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
“Sinners,” Ryan Coogler
Will win: “Sinners”
And here’s at least one Oscar for Coogler.
Animated feature
“Arco”
“Elio”
“KPop Demon Hunters”
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
“Zootopia 2”
Will win: “KPop Demon Hunters”
The earworm-loaded “KPop” just swept the animation industry’s Annie Awards, winning all 10 of its nominated categories. It’s the most popular movie in the history of Netflix, and, if you’re a voter with (grand)kids, you’ve probably watched it — and enjoyed it — together, oh, at least three (dozen) times.
Documentary feature
“The Alabama Solution”
“Come See Me in the Good Light”
“Cutting Through Rocks”
“Mr. Nobody Against Putin”
“The Perfect Neighbor”
Will win: “The Perfect Neighbor”
Could surprise: “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”
“The Perfect Neighbor,” the true-crime documentary about a Florida Black single mother killed in 2023 by her white neighbor, has racked up more than 50 million views since its October debut on Netflix. In years past, that would give it a huge advantage. But this year, voters are required to certify through the academy’s screening room portal that they have viewed all nominated films in each category to be eligible to vote in that category. And you know what? It still has a huge advantage.
International feature
“It Was Just an Accident”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sirât”
“The Voice of Hind Rajab”
Will win: “Sentimental Value”
Could surprise: “The Secret Agent”
Never underestimate the passion of Brazil, which helped power “I’m Still Here” to a win here last year. But in a race between the two films that are also nominated for best picture, go with “Sentimental Value,” which secured nine nods to four for “The Secret Agent.” Its tender story of daddy issues, sibling love and how streaming is ruining traditional cinema is totally relatable.
Casting
“Hamnet,” Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme,” Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another,” Cassandra Kulukundis
“The Secret Agent,” Gabriel Domingues
“Sinners,” Francine Maisler
Will win: “Sinners”
Is there anyone who hasn’t worked with Maisler, who has cast movies for Michael Mann, Terrence Malick, Steve McQueen, Barry Jenkins and Denis Villeneuve, among countless others? She even cast the Roy family in “Succession,” for crying out loud. Maisler is a legend and the perfect choice for the first Oscar in this brand-new category.
Cinematography
“Frankenstein,” Dan Laustsen
“Marty Supreme,” Darius Khondji
“One Battle After Another,” Michael Bauman
“Sinners,” Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams,” Adolpho Veloso
Will win: “One Battle After Another”
Could surprise: “Sinners” or “Train Dreams”
This is the year’s hardest category to predict. You have Bauman and the vintage large-format VistaVision camerawork and those gorgeous night scenes and the thrilling car chase finale. You have Arkapaw’s dynamic use of the 65-pound Imax camera and the indelible surreal musical scene in the juke joint. You have Veloso’s immersive, painterly work in a 3:2 aspect ratio that gives you the feeling that you’re gazing through a window into the past. Arkapaw would be the first woman to win this category. But Bauman won with the American Society of Cinematographers, BAFTA and the British Society of Cinematographers, and those wins give him the slightest of edges.
Costume design
“Avatar: Fire and Ash,” Deborah L. Scott
“Frankenstein,” Kate Hawley
“Hamnet,” Malgosia Turzanska
“Marty Supreme,” Miyako Bellizzi
“Sinners,” Ruth E. Carter
Will win: “Frankenstein”
Could surprise: “Sinners”
Hawley won with BAFTA and the Costume Design Guild, so it’s hard to pick against her sumptuous, bejeweled-tone take on Guillermo del Toro’s (Mia) Gothic-Victorian horror tale.
Film editing
“F1,” Stephen Mirrione
“Marty Supreme,” Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another,” Andy Jurgensen
“Sentimental Value,” Olivier Bugge Coutté
“Sinners,” Michael P. Shawver
Will win: “One Battle After Another”
“One Battle After Another” moves with breakneck speed, its 162 minutes going by in a flash. Jurgensen earned this Oscar for the cut of the closing car chase alone.
Makeup and hairstyling
“Frankenstein,” Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
“Kokuho,” Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
“Sinners,” Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
“The Smashing Machine,” Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
“The Ugly Stepsister,” Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Will win: “Frankenstein”
Original score
(Warner Bros. Entertainment)
“Bugonia,” Jerskin Fendrix
“Frankenstein,” Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet,” Max Richter
“One Battle After Another,” Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners,” Ludwig Göransson
Will win: “Sinners”
Göransson is on a roll, on track to win his third Oscar in this category, following “Black Panther” in 2019 and “Oppenheimer” in 2024. At 41, he’s a threat to eclipse John Williams’ five wins, though Williams’ 54 nominations is well out of reach. Next up: Reteaming with Christopher Nolan on “The Odyssey.” Same time next year?
Original song
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless”; music and lyric by Diane Warren
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”; music and lyric by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners”; music and lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!”; music and lyric by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams”; music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyric by Nick Cave
Will win: “Golden”
“KPop’s” signature song is so popular that even the signature song from the movie nominated for a record-breaking 16 Oscars doesn’t have a chance against it.
Production design
“Frankenstein,” production design: Tamara Deverell; set decoration: Shane Vieau
“Hamnet,” production design: Fiona Crombie; set decoration: Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme,” production design: Jack Fisk; set decoration: Adam Willis
“One Battle After Another,” production design: Florencia Martin; set decoration: Anthony Carlino
“Sinners,” production design: Hannah Beachler; set decoration: Monique Champagne
Will win: “Frankenstein”
“Frankenstein’s” lavish, painstakingly crafted sets have swept through the awards season, winning at BAFTA and with the art directors and set decorators guilds, making it the prohibitive favorite. If that’s the case, it feels like it’s time to give the great Fisk an honorary Oscar at the next Governors Awards. He’s beyond overdue.
Sound
“F1,” Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
“Frankenstein,” Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
“One Battle After Another,” José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
“Sinners,” Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
“Sirāt,” Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas
Will win: “F1”
Could surprise: “Sinners”
Ggghhzzzzzzzhhhhhhhggggggzzzzzzzeeeeeong! Hard to beat the purr of a high-tech race car.
Visual effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash,” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
“F1,” Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
“Jurassic World Rebirth,” David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
“The Lost Bus,” Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
“Sinners,” Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean
Will win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
The visual wonders of Pandora never grow old, even when the storytelling feels like it’s spinning its wheels.
Animated short
“Butterfly”
“Forevergreen”
“The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
“Retirement Plan”
“The Three Sisters”
Will win: “Butterfly”
Could surprise: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
“Butterfly,” a gorgeous, painterly look at the life of Jewish French-Algerian swimmer Alfred Nakache, who competed in the Olympics before and after the Holocaust, is my choice. But the stop-motion “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” a grimy tale of greed that would delight Dickens and Tim Burton, has its fans — and is the only one of this group nominated at the Annie Awards.
Documentary short
“All the Empty Rooms”
“Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud”
“Children No More: Were and Are Gone”
“The Devil Is Busy”
“Perfectly a Strangeness”
Will win: “All the Empty Rooms”
Parents took CBS News reporter Steve Hartman and photographer Lou Bopp inside the untouched bedrooms of their children who were killed in school shootings. Needless to say, it breaks your heart.
Live action short
(Misia Films & Preromanbritain)
“Butcher’s Stain”
“A Friend of Dorothy”
“Jane Austen’s Period Drama”
“The Singers”
“Two People Exchanging Saliva”
Will win: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
Could surprise: “A Friend of Dorothy”
“Two People Exchanging Saliva,” a “Carol”-esque story set in a dystopian future where kissing is illegal and punishable by death, is the most ambitious and fully realized of the nominees, and its characters’ resistance carries an urgency. “A Friend of Dororthy,” meanwhile, is centered on a cute old lady who will warm your heart. Are voters feeling sentimental? Flip a coin.
