Paxton and Talarico Offer Diverging Paths on Affordability

by Curtis Jones
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Ken Paxton pitched his plan to make Texas more affordable in a Mexican restaurant crammed with people, working mostly off the cuff from a small, crumpled page of notes.

A day later, on Wednesday night, James Talarico read his plan from a teleprompter at an e-sports arena, under a large American flag and in front of a large crowd.

Both men want the same Senate seat. And both said during events in North Texas this week that the American dream had become too expensive.

With Mr. Talarico leading in some polls and Democrats chasing their first statewide win in Texas in more than 30 years, both campaigns have made affordability the centerpiece of the race. Mr. Paxton, a Republican and attorney general of Texas, would cut taxes. Mr. Talarico, a Democratic state representative, would raise wages and increase taxes on the wealthy.

Mr. Paxton’s plan centered on new tax deductions for second homes, medical bills and gym memberships.

Mr. Talarico’s plan proposed increasing wages, repealing billionaire tax cuts and canceling debt.

“We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis,” Mr. Talarico said onstage at the Esports Stadium Arlington, the former Arlington Expo Center, flanked by the words “NEW AMERICAN DREAM.” Blue lights shone into the crowd, which his campaign said topped 1,000 people.

He fixed his ire on billionaires and appealed to Republicans and Democrats alike to support his fight against a system he said was built to benefit the ultrawealthy. Mr. Talarico said he wanted to close tax loopholes and provide down payment assistance for first-time home buyers. He wanted an “all-of-the-above energy strategy” that included renewables and oil and gas. He also backed the A.I. dividend, the idea of providing direct payments for people who had lost income or opportunities because of artificial intelligence.

“Whether you’re a little more conservative or a little more progressive — we’re all getting screwed,” Mr. Talarico said.

At his kickoff event on Tuesday, Mr. Paxton told the few hundred supporters gathered in the special events space of Matt’s Rancho Martinez in Allen that he wanted a $25,000 tax deduction for health care costs. He also proposed a $5,000 tax deduction for “healthy living” spending on gym memberships or GLP-1 medications like Ozempic or Zepbound. He said he wanted to make it easier for people to buy first and second homes, with a $50,000 tax deduction for each.

The crowd whooped and hollered, fanning themselves in the hot, packed room.

“We have socialist Democrats like James Talarico who want to become a Texas senator,” Mr. Paxton said, “when he belongs in California.”

Mr. Talarico is not a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. He is not endorsed by the D.S.A., Priscilla Yeverino, the group’s communications director, confirmed. There are no D.S.A. candidates on the ballot in Texas.

That has not stopped Mr. Paxton, or his proxies, from leaning into that messaging. With Mr. Talarico ahead in some polls, and with a much larger war chest, Mr. Paxton hopes to sow doubt among moderates that his opponent is the candidate for them.

Mr. Talarico addressed the tactic in his speech.

“They’re going to claim we’re socialists, or communists, or whatever sounds scariest in a headline,” he said. “And we’ll say, ‘Is that the best you can do?’”

Economists from both parties said Mr. Talarico’s plan was solidly Democratic with a populist bent, and said Mr. Paxton’s tax deductions would not benefit many low-income Americans. They said the one thing that Mr. Paxton and Mr. Talarico agreed on — expanding the child tax credit — could cost trillions of dollars over the next decade.

Jessica Riedl, a budget and tax fellow with the Brookings Institution, said the two candidates’ plans were filled with “poll-tested” proposals she would have expected during campaign season.

“Both candidates are promising a free lunch,” said Ms. Riedl, who has advised Republican presidential candidates, “either with lower taxes or with more spending that can be funded by the top one percent.”

Jared Bernstein, the former chair of President Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, said Mr. Talarico’s plan had a mix of good “and less good” ideas. He applauded the Democrat for proposing ways to create more housing stock and to crack down on “tax cheats.”

But he, too, was not sold on how everyday Americans would benefit from repealing tax breaks for the top 1 percent.

Both Mr. Bernstein and Ms. Riedl criticized the Paxton plan as expensive and unhelpful to the neediest Americans. The Paxton campaign did not answer questions about how the plan would be financed.

“My take on his plan is that he helped a lot of people like himself,” Mr. Bernstein said, “and from what I can tell, he’s not the one who needs it.”

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