The Colorado River, a critical water lifeline for seven states, has shrunk dramatically. And the nation’s largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, have dropped to their lowest levels on record.
In an effort to prevent the reservoirs from reaching critically low levels, the Trump administration has released a plan that orders substantial water cutbacks in California, Arizona and Nevada over the next two years and outlines possible larger cuts if deemed necessary over the next decade.
The Interior Department has accepted an offer the three states made to reduce the amount of water they take from the river by about 3.2 million acre-feet between now and the end of 2028.
California will cut its use of Colorado River water by about 12%, while Arizona will take about 31% less and Nevada 28% less.
“We’ve been in this 26-year prolonged drought period,” said Andrea Travnicek, the Interior Department’s assistant secretary for water and science. “We continue to see a prolonged drought in our future. So continuing to work together as a whole within the basin is going to be extremely important.”
The Interior Department on Friday issued a document called a record of decision detailing its 10-year plan for dealing with the water shortages. If reservoir levels continue to fall, it allows for larger mandatory water cuts of up to 3 million acre-feet per year in California, Arizona and Nevada — as much as 40% of their combined allotments.
The Trump administration did not mention climate change in its announcement. But extensive research shows global warming, driven by the use of fossil fuels and other emissions of planet-heating gases, is intensifying the extremely dry conditions.
Since 2020, the river flow has averaged 32% less than in the 20th century.
The federal government was required to set new rules for addressing shortages this year because the old rules are expiring.
Over the last three years, state negotiators repeatedly held talks to try to reach a seven-state water-sharing agreement, but the three downstream states, California, Arizona and Nevada, deadlocked with the upstream states, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico.
In its rules for the next two years, the Trump administration is not requiring water cuts for the four upstream states. Travnicek said that’s because the federal government has different “responsibilities and authorities” in each region.
The federal government is, however, providing funds to support water-saving efforts, including $350 million for the lower states and $100 million for the upper states. The money comes from the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, and will go to pay urban agencies that leave water in Lake Mead, and farmers and ranchers who agree to leave fields dry.
The Colorado River provides water for about 35 million people in cities from Denver to San Diego, as well as 30 Native tribes and 5 million acres of farmland. About three-fourths of the water that’s diverted from the river flows in canals to farms, producing alfalfa for cattle as well as lettuce, broccoli and other crops.
This year, the Rocky Mountains had the smallest amount of snow on record, and the lack of snowmelt is pushing reservoir levels lower.
Lake Mead, near Las Vegas, is now 27% full, and Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona border, has declined to just 22% of capacity.
If Powell’s level falls an additional 29 feet, water would no longer reach the intakes of Glen Canyon Dam to spin its turbines, rendering the dam unable to continue generating electricity and potentially limiting how much water could pass downstream.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation plans to reduce releases of water from Lake Powell over the next eight months to try to keep the reservoir’s level about 20 feet above that point.
The 10-year plan, which the Trump administration broadly outlined in an earlier document, gives the states a “stable and flexible foundation” to address the water shortage while continuing to try to develop a consensus, Travnicek said.
After the first two years, the plan calls for new rounds of talks among the states to try to agree on a water-sharing approach for subsequent years.
“The number one goal is still to reach consensus,” Travnicek said.
She praised California, Arizona and Nevada for offering plans to cut water use, which will help slow the decline of Lake Mead.
“It’s been really great to be able to see the Lower Basin coming together, working together on those voluntary actions,” she said.
Arizona’s leaders have warned, however, that they could sue to challenge the mandatory water cutbacks. A legal fight could end up before the U.S. Supreme Court and further complicate efforts to reach a seven-state deal.
Travnicek said each state has the prerogative to interpret the law and make its own decisions, but “it’s better to do that with the folks that are the water managers around the table versus having a judge do that.”
JB Hamby, California’s river commissioner and lead negotiator, said the plan provides a “workable path” for the next two years, but is “a bridge, not a permanent solution.”
“California, Arizona, and Nevada have shown that states can compromise, make difficult decisions, and reduce water use when the river demands it. But three states cannot carry the responsibility of all seven,” Hamby said.
He called for Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico to agree to substantial water-savings to “bring demand in line with what the river can supply.”
California Gov. Gavin Newsom said the federal plan is necessary to protect the river “at a time when climate change is driving a regional water crisis.” He said he appreciates Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s efforts in working with California and other states on the plan, but that it provides “only short-term stability” and that “any long-term solution must share responsibility fairly across all seven states.”
Water managers in Colorado and the other three upstream states have pointed out that when it’s dry and the river shrinks, they’re already forced to use less. With so little water flowing in tributaries and canals this year, farmers and ranchers in Colorado have had to leave many fields and pastures dry.
Tom Buschatzke, Arizona’s lead negotiator, said with the rules for the next two years settled, “we can focus on a longer-term, equitable, basin-wide outcome that includes shared sacrifices … in an effort to avoid protracted litigation.”
The water was originally divided among the states in 1922 under the Colorado River Compact, an agreement that overpromised what the river could provide.
For decades, so much water has been diverted that the river seldom meets the sea in Mexico, and its delta, once a teeming wilderness of wetlands and forests, has shriveled to stretches of dry, sandy riverbed.
The federal plan calls for reassessing water cuts if extremely dry conditions persist.
The Trump administration’s approach “appears to attempt to keep the peace for the next couple of years,” said Jennifer Pitt, director of the National Audubon Society’s Colorado River program.
“If the next two years are really dry, there are extraordinary risks for water users,” Pitt said, including potentially drastic water cutbacks if reservoirs keep dropping.
The Trump administration has also been in negotiations with Mexico on a new agreement for dealing with the water shortages. In a deal that will soon be signed, Travnicek said, Mexico has agreed to reduce the water it takes from the river by 250,000 acre-feet each year in 2027 and 2028, a cut of about 17%.
The water will remain in Lake Mead, helping to offset its unrelenting decline.
