Mel Gutherie, president of Gutherie Lumber, walks among Canadian lumber products on Aug. 25 in Livonia, Mich.
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Paul Sancya/AP
President Trump’s tariff standoff with Canada is rankling some key voters ahead of this year’s midterm elections.
NPR observed two online focus groups Wednesday night with 13 people in Michigan who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and then Trump in 2024. Eleven of these swing voters said the trade war with Canada, which borders Michigan, would be bad for the state. Not a single person said they felt there was something positive to gain from this tension with their northern neighbor.
A majority of the participants said they are most worried higher tariffs could worsen an affordability crisis — a central issue in this year’s midterms. Nine said they were concerned Trump’s tariffs would affect what they personally pay for some products.
“Prices are going to go up,” said P.J., a 45-year-old self-described Democrat. (Participants took part in these sessions under the condition their last names would not be used.) “The more we put tariffs on stuff, the more they put tariffs on stuff. I mean, prices are just ultimately going to go up for all of us.”
While focus groups are not scientifically significant like polls, these sessions do provide insight into what this politically powerful sliver of the electorate is thinking and feeling. This year, Michigan voters will weigh in on a closely watched Senate race that could be key in deciding whether Democrats regain control of the chamber.
These focus groups with swing voters in battleground states are held by messaging firm Engagious and market research recruiting firm Nelson Recruiting. NPR partners with them each month as part of the Swing Voter Project.
Rich Thau, the president of Engagious, moderates these discussions. He said because Michigan borders Canada, voters there are particularly nervous about financial blowback from Trump’s tariff policies.
“It’s real for them,” Thau told NPR. “It’s proximate and they’re concerned that this is going to be damaging to them personally and to the state overall.”
Some of these voters said they personally witness a lot of commerce between the two countries. Tanya, a 61-year-old independent, said she often sees trucks coming back and forth over the border.
“It’s going to decrease the border crossings because we have two bridges now,” she said. “We just opened the Gordie Howe Bridge. It’s going to affect the amount of traffic and the business that those bridges are going to see in the future.”
High prices aren’t coming down
Barbara, a 77-year-old independent voter, said she’s worried items that do make it across the border are going to get significantly more expensive.
“I just went into the store and I looked at my shampoo and I said, ‘OK, this is going to go up 50%,'” she said. “I mean, because my shampoo is made in Canada.”
Sylvia, a 62-year-old Democrat, said she might put off buying some products from Canada.
“I like to buy certain alcohol and other types of products [from Canada],” she said. “And if it’s going to go up, it’s going to cost me more. So I probably wouldn’t be able to pick it up right away or would have to wait a little while and hope that maybe this will slow down and quiet down and they could get a better resolution from all of this.”
Month after month, frustration over high prices has remained a sticking point for swing voters who have participated in these focus groups. In Michigan, eight of the 13 said they feel more economically anxious now than they did before Trump took office again.
“They complained bitterly about the high prices of an endless number of goods, groceries, gasoline … go down the list,” Thau said. “So they are not in a happy mood when it comes to the cost of everyday goods. So the tariffs just add more fuel to the fire.”
Samantha, a 31-year-old independent voter, said she finds the whole situation angering because she voted for Trump because of his promises to bring down prices.
“I feel like my only reason for voting for him was in the hopes of fixing the economy,” she told Thau. “And right now from where I am — I would consider myself middle class — things are more expensive such as food, gas.”
Many of these voters said they also thought Trump’s ego motivated his decision to rename Lake Ontario as Lake America, in response to Canada’s retaliatory tariffs.
“It is a little bit of his ego,” Sylvia said. “But I just don’t understand why he is focusing on that. Like what Samantha had said, he needs to focus on our country and get it back running good and inflation down like he keeps saying, but I haven’t seen it yet.”
“He’s just trying to get a rise out of the opposition in Canada and … get a reaction,” said David, a 67-year-old independent voter who identifies with the MAGA movement. “And I think that’s the only reason he’s doing it, and his ego, too. ‘OK. I can do it, and what are you going to do about it?'”
