The win over Norway – coupled with their defeat by Portugal on Sunday – means Wales are still third heading into the final games, courtesy of the head-to-head nature of this competition’s tie-breakers.
Over the previous three Nations League campaigns combined, teams that finish bottom of a League A group have an average of 2.92 points after their six games.
Wales already have three points, and they still have to play Norway in Oslo and Portugal in Cardiff in November.
Before the current international camp even started, Bellamy spoke about targeting third place.
That would give Wales a chance of avoiding being relegated to League B and it would also improve their seeding for the Euro 2028 qualifying draw.
So what about teams who finish third in League A?
In the 2020-21, 2022-23 and 2024-25 campaigns combined, teams finishing third in League A groups have ended with an average of 6.42 points from six games.
It means Wales would realistically need one more win, or maybe two draws, to stand a chance of finishing third.
Even if they finish fourth, the tweak to the format means that only the two worst-ranked bottom sides go down automatically, with the other two heading into a play-off against a League B runner up.
With Serbia, Turkey and Czech Republic yet to register a point, they may already have done enough to line up a two-legged battle for survival in March, with Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ukraine, Scotland and Kosovo among the potential opponents.
