6 picks our expert loves

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2025 RBC Canadian Open, which gets underway Thursday in Toronto. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

As we flip the calendar to June, the PGA Tour begins its national open run. We are north of the border this week for the RBC Canadian Open, back in the states next week for the U.S. Open, and then across the pond next month for the Scottish Open, followed by the Open Championship at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland.

The Canadian Open is one of the oldest golf tournaments in the world, as it dates back to 1904. For the first time however, it will be played this year at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley. A golf course that opened in 2001 and went through a major redesign in 2023 makes its debut on Tour and will host the 2026 Canadian Open as well. It is a very long par 70 at nearly 7,400 yards. The fairways are relatively wide and are bordered by thick rough. The greens are large and feature a blend of Bentgrass and Poa Annua.

With the golf course being long and the fairways wide, I believe we can point to this being a driver-heavy track. For that reason, I have looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee this week as one of my key stats. Three of the four par 3s are close to 200 yards long or more. The majority of the par 4s measure between 450-500 yards. I have looked both of these areas as well as Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards. Finally, I looked at Strokes Gained: Approach, Scrambling, and Strokes Gained: Putting (Bent/Poa).

It is largely guesswork when trying to pinpoint golf courses that are similar to or are correlated to TPC Toronto because we have not seen the course played on the PGA Tour before, so it will be a while before we see any crossover success possibly develop. I used Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge) because of the similarities in length and the fact that they are both par 70s. Many of the golf courses in the TPC network have similar characteristics. TPC San Antonio (Valero Texas Open) and TPC Craig Ranch (CJ Cup Byron Nelson) are both driver-heavy courses. Craig Ranch has large, Bentgrass greens, and wide fairways. Memorial Park (Houston Open) is another driver-heavy par 70, and finally, I used Detroit Golf Club, home to the Rocket Mortgage Classic. This is another course that has wide, tree-lined, fairways and features Bentrgass/Poa Annua-blend greens. 

Mackenzie Hughes (45-1)

Nick Taylor was the first Canadian to win the Canadian Open in 54 years when he did so two seasons ago. The pressure to win on home soil is intense, so I don’t like to go too heavy with the Canadians on the card, but I do really like the way Hughes is playing and he has had very solid success in this tournament before with finishes of seventh, 14th, and eighth in the past. It is also worth noting that an American has not won this event since 2018. Hughes has enough length off the tee, has very good results at the correlated courses, and owns one of the best short games in this field. Hughes has two top-10 finishes and a runner-up in his last seven starts. I believe he’ll play well this week.

Alex Noren (55-1)

Noren made his return to action just four weeks ago after nursing a serious hamstring injury for seven months. He’s been playing excellent golf in his return and I believe he’s ready to win. He has two top-10 finishes in Detroit, two top-15 finishes at TPC San Antonio, has been third and 12th at the Byron Nelson, and 11th and fourth in Houston. The SG: Tee to Green game has been very good as of late and he’s always been a successful putter on this type of green surface. If you also look at where he’s been good in his return — the Truist Championship, the PGA Championship, and the Memorial last week — those are three of the most difficult golf courses we’ve seen all season. I feel he could be ready to go low this week in Toronto.

Matti Schmid (80-1)

Schmid finished runner-up at a lengthy par-70 course just two weeks ago, Colonial Country Club. Prior to that, he posted three additional top-10 finishes in the last two months. His iron play has been fantastic, ranking seventh in this field for SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and No. 1 in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards.

Davis Riley (86-1)

Here is another player who has had success in the state of Texas — a win and a fourth-place finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a ninth-place finish at the Byron Nelson. It was just three weeks ago that Riley finished runner-up at the PGA Championship. Over the last 24 rounds, Riley ranks 10th in this field for SG: Tee to Green and for SG: Putting (Bent/Poa).

Justin Rose (95-1)

Yet another winner at Colonial makes our card this week. Rose has also finished top 10 in Houston and his last two visits to the Canadian Open have resulted in eighth and fourth place finishes. He’s an excellent putter on this surface, ranking 28th in the field over the last 24 rounds. I believe the timing is good for the Englishman this week. He had to withdraw from the Truist Championship and then missed the cut at the PGA Championship. Last week at the Memorial, a tournament he’s won before, he played two poor rounds and two very good rounds. Now he is at an event he loves and next week, he goes to the U.S. Open, the one major championship he has to his credit. I expect a positive week out of the guy who this season has finished third at Pebble Beach, eighth at Bay Hill, and second at Augusta National. 

Ricky Castillo (120-1)

The young rookie out of University of Florida has been very solid this season. Over the last 24 rounds, Castillo is fourth in this field for SG: Tee to Green. He ranks 30th on the Par 4s of 450-500 yards and is 27th in SG: Putting (Bent/Poa). It is also interesting to note that Castillo just took fifth last month at one of our correlated courses, TPC Craig Ranch (Bentgrass greens) and earlier this season finished 15th at Torrey Pines (Poa Annua greens) for the Farmers Insurance Open.