The path to Democratic control of the Senate is widening as the party’s fortunes improve in five reliably Republican states, according to new polls from The New York Times and Siena University.
Underneath the hood of the polling results, which showed Democrats effectively tied in states that were once seen as long shots, and with at least an edge in states seen as tossups, there are more data points to concern Republicans as they try hold on to their Senate majority.
Even in states President Trump won by double digits in 2024, voters — including many who backed Mr. Trump — appear to be discontented with the economy and uncertain about Republicans’ handling of other issues, among them artificial intelligence and immigration.
Here are eight key findings from the polls in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas.
Voters are not sold on the economy. Especially in Alaska.
Voter agreement cuts across age, education level, gender and race. In the five states, they tend to be united on this much: their state’s economies are not in great shape.
The assessment was particularly bleak in Alaska, where nearly three-quarters of voters said the state’s economic conditions were only fair or poor.
In Iowa, Kansas and Ohio, two-thirds or more of those surveyed rendered the same judgment on their state’s economic conditions. Voters took a slightly more optimistic view in Texas, where 44 percent of voters said the economy was excellent or good, and 56 percent said it was only fair or poor.
In Texas, Talarico and Paxton are running even on immigration.
Mr. Trump had a 10-percentage-point advantage on voters’ trust to handle immigration in Times/Siena battleground polls conducted in September 2024. Republicans’ edge has shrunk to just three points in the most recent round of Senate battleground polls.
The dynamic is especially striking in Texas, where 12 percent of voters listed immigration as the top driver of their vote, more than in any other state. Voters in Texas are evenly split on who they trust more to handle the issue, the Republican Senate candidate, Ken Paxton, or the Democratic candidate, James Talarico.
Republican frustration with Trump is evident, particularly when it comes to gas prices in the Midwest.
Across the five states, Mr. Trump’s approval rating sat at just 40 percent. That included 20 percent of voters who supported him in 2024, but who now said they disapproved of his job performance.
Even as Mr. Trump’s numbers have fallen since the summer, his base has largely continued to back him.
That makes it even more striking to see half of Republicans in Iowa — and nearly half of Republicans in Ohio and Kansas — disapprove of the president’s handling of gas prices. Across all other issues, in every other state polled, Republicans did not come anywhere close to this level of disapproval.
In Ohio, Sherrod Brown has a sizable advantage on data centers.
Sherrod Brown, a Democratic former senator trying to stage a comeback in Ohio, has focused heavily on data centers in his race against Senator Jon Husted, a Republican — and it seems to be working in his favor.
Mr. Husted supported data center investments in his state while serving as its lieutenant governor from 2019 to 2025, and Democrats have cast him as the “face of data centers” in Ohio. (Mr. Husted has tried to recover on the issue by sponsoring a bill intended to protect consumers from high energy costs linked to data centers.)
Most Ohio voters say they are opposed to data center construction. And by a wide, 11-point margin, voters favor Mr. Brown over Mr. Husted to handle the issue, the largest advantage for any candidate across the states when it comes to data centers. Even 11 percent of Republicans in the state say they prefer the Democrat’s position.
Still, only 3 percent of voters in Ohio said that data centers were the most important issue driving their vote. Though small, that proportion was much higher than in any other state, where hardly any voters mentioned the issue.
Most say the Democratic Party is too far to the left …
Fifty-two percent of voters across the five states said the Democratic Party was too far to the left ideologically, in a year in which voters nominated progressives or democratic socialists in several primaries.
… but they don’t see specific Democratic candidates that way.
Voters tend to view their own members of Congress more favorably than they view Congress overall, and that trend seems to extend to Senate candidates. Only 35 percent of voters across the five states said the Democratic nominees running in their states were too far to the left.
Democrats have an edge on character.
In all five states, the Democratic Senate nominee edged the Republican nominee on the question of who had better character. In some Senate races, the gap was slim. But in Texas, the Democratic nominee, James Talarico, held a 23-point lead over the scandal-plagued Republican nominee, Ken Paxton, on the question of character.
The most-liked Democratic nominee is from Alaska.
The candidate contrast was stark in Alaska, where Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman who has faced allegations of staff mistreatment, was viewed favorably by a majority of voters, including 15 percent of Republicans. By a wide margin, she was also seen as more trusted than Dan Sullivan, the Republican nominee, to act in the best interest of ordinary Alaskans.
John Yoon contributed reporting.
