At least two more storms are headed toward California over the next few days, bringing more heavy rains and strong winds to many areas already saturated and battered from this series of winter weather systems.
Forecasters across the state called Friday a short reprieve from the onslaught of winter storms over the last week, which have flooded coastal and urban areas, triggered mudslides and downed trees, dumped heavy snow in the mountains and left at least five people dead.
Northern California has been hit the hardest in the recent storms, seeing flooding along the coast from massive waves and storm surge, and water rising in inland areas along creeks, streams and rivers — with more of that expected.
“We remain in a very wet pattern, well into next week,” said Brooke Bingaman, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Monterey. She said it’s been odd to look at the forecast and “not see much of a dry break anywhere, after having so much drought.”
California’s years-long drought has only exacerbated the impact of the latest string of storms, known as “atmospheric rivers,” with trees more vulnerable to topple, soils weakened and increased burn scars prone to landslides.
For Northern California, the brunt of the next storm should hit Saturday evening, before an even wetter system will likely hit Monday during the day, Bingaman said. Then, she said, there’s the potential for a third storm to move in toward the end of the week.
(Paul Duginski / Los Angeles Times)
“We’re still looking at a lot of rain,” Bingaman said. “Because our soils are so saturated, any of these upcoming waves can be impactful because there’s just nowhere for the water to go.”
Flooding, downed trees and power outages remain a concern heading into the weekend and next week, she said, even as much of the state remains in recovery mode from the last storm — still dealing with dangerously high surf, thousands without electricity and other storm damage.
A high surf advisory was extended through Friday evening along Bay Area coasts, warning of dangerously large waves still crashing, up to 25 feet.
Images and videos from the last 48 hours showed significant damage in and around Santa Cruz County’s coastline and at Carmel-by-the-Sea in Monterey County: from coastal flooding and other damage to an ocean-front home slammed by a king wave and roads washed over with debris.
An evacuation order was still in effect Friday morning for Santa Cruz County’s low-lying Capitola Village neighborhood, which saw severe flooding, not far from where the city’s pier collapsed during the storm Thursday, as did the pier in nearby Seacliff.
As with the last storms, the worst of the outlook for flooding remains in Northern California over the next few days.
In the Bay Area, most urban regions saw 1 to 3 inches of rain over the last two days, while some areas in the Sonoma Mountains got up to 6 inches, Bingaman said. The Santa Cruz Mountains saw 3 to 4 inches, and the Big Sur coast recorded 3 to 6 inches.
In Sacramento, the previous storm produced about 2 to 4 inches in the foothill communities and about 1.5 inches to 2 inches in the Sacramento metro area. More rain is expected in the area this weekend.
“The main issue is the heavy rain leading to renewed flooding concerns,” said Scott Rowe, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Sacramento.
Some of the river forecasts show waterways, including the Sacramento River, could reach flood stage.
Monday’s storm — the stronger of the two still to come — carries the potential for widespread river flooding, particularly for large rivers from Mendocino County to the Monterey County area, said Brett Whitin, a hydrologist with the California Nevada River Forecast Center.
The Russian, Carmel, Pajaro and Salinas rivers could exceed flood stages, meaning they could impact surrounding areas, he said. The Cosumnes River, where at least two people were killed when waters rushed over levees in a recent storm, could reach levels like those of New Year’s Eve.
The Central Valley, mainly the Sacramento River system, is also forecast to surpass flood stages at certain points.
“There is a lot of high water in a lot of places expected through Monday,” Whitin said. Part of the reason is that the ground is saturated, leading to more surface runoff into the rivers and creeks. The rivers are also already swollen from previous rains.
“A lot of the river levels haven’t really come down to the levels that they were, say, before the New Year’s Eve storm,” Whitin said. And many of the forecasts where rivers could flood have areas in the watershed that aren’t regulated by reservoirs, he added.
But even with such high water levels, the state’s largest reservoirs remain at below-average levels after three years of severe drought.
As of Friday, Shasta Lake was at 35% of full capacity and Lake Oroville was 41% full. Officials with the federal Bureau of Reclamation said they expect, based on the current five-day forecast, that Shasta Lake will rise about 20 feet in the coming days, taking in approximately 400,000 acre-feet of water. That amount of water, if spread out across Los Angeles, would cover the city more than 1 foot deep.
“If the longer-term forecast holds, those numbers will increase — possibly as much as double — over the following 10 days,” said Mary Lee Knecht, a spokesperson for the Bureau of Reclamation in Sacramento.
With the water deficit that California has accumulated over the last year, the latest data on the Drought Monitor website shows that much of the state is still considered to be in drought.
But in the latest update Tuesday, the portions of the state classified as being in “extreme” or “exceptional” drought shrank to 27%, down from 35% a week earlier. And the remaining areas of “exceptional” drought, which had been 7% of the state, disappeared from the map. The next series of storms is set to continue improving the state’s water outlook.
In Southern California, the last storm moved through faster and produced less rain than expected, delivering 1.5 to 3 inches overall, with 3 to 6 inches in the mountains and foothills, according to the National Weather Service.
The rainfall still created a number of issues for the region, including a mudslide along Topanga Canyon Boulevard in the Santa Monica Mountains that temporarily closed the road , and some minor flooding at the Long Beach peninsula.
A high surf warning was in effect through Friday evening for Orange County and San Diego beaches, with waves expected around 10 feet..
Many beaches in Los Angeles closed piers and warned residents of extreme surf conditions, at least through Saturday.
More intense rain is expected throughout California on Monday, bringing heavy rains along the coast and valleys up and down the state. Mountain and foothill areas are likely to be hit the hardest, meteorologists said.
Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the National Weather service in Oxnard, said this series of storms is stemming from a jet stream parked in the Pacific just south enough to keep Southern California in its track.
“We will be along the highway of storms for the next week or two,” Kittell said.
