NPR’s Scott Simon asks Republican strategist Liam Donovan about his party’s approach to November’s Senate races.
Transcript
SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Maine Democrats have a little more than two weeks to pick a new candidate to take on incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins. Graham Platner, who had won the June primary, withdrew from the race this week, days after Politico reported on a rape allegation from a former girlfriend, which Platner denies. There had been other red flags during Platner’s campaign – a tattoo that resembled a Nazi symbol, reports of unsettling behavior from other former girlfriends and an admission that he was sexting women outside of his marriage. We are joined now by Republican strategist Liam Donovan in our studios. Thanks so much for being with us.
LIAM DONOVAN: Scott, it’s great to be here.
SIMON: Democrats had seen Senator Collins as very vulnerable this cycle, and defeating her, perhaps, their best opportunity to flip control of the Senate. Is that still the case?
DONOVAN: I think it’s still the case that they have to win Maine to have a plausible path to the Senate. The math and the map of this cycle mean it is largely going through Trump country, through battlegrounds that Republicans have won in previous presidential cycles. This is the only state where there is a Republican sitting in a state that Vice President Harris and President Biden previously won.
SIMON: We just went through some of the allegations that had been made about Graham Platner, and we can imagine that Senator Collins and her team were preparing to run against him. Do they have to throw that strategy out now?
DONOVAN: I think they certainly do, in the sense that the heaps of opposition research against Graham Platner are no longer operative. But it’s Democrats that are kind of reeling here in the sense that it’s better than Graham Platner at his worst, but it is still worse than Graham Platner at his high points, where they had all the energy and they had a relatively united party. I think they’re left with a handful of also-rans coming off recent losses, not exactly setting the world on fire, and several of them have lost to Senator Collins in the past.
SIMON: Does it necessarily represent a new opportunity for Republicans or a new challenge?
DONOVAN: I do think it’s a challenge in the sense that there’s a reset. And so, in a sense, it’s somewhat like the summer in 2024, where Democrats were dealing with a weakened Biden. There was a great deal of relief when they pushed him out, but, of course, they were left with Kamala Harris, who was not ultimately able to get across the finish line. I think it’s a very similar moment. Platner was weak. Biden was weak, but that does not necessarily mean that this is as easy of a race as they thought it would be at the beginning of the cycle.
SIMON: What’s the national Senate map look like to Republicans now?
DONOVAN: Like I said, it does run through Republican territory. If you look elsewhere, there are a few states that are not layups for Republicans but certainly places where Democrats haven’t had great fortunes in the past. The most obvious place that Democrats have the best chance to win is in North Carolina – the mix of an open seat left by Thom Tillis, a popular former governor in Roy Cooper, a great deal of money and just a state that’s right on the knife-edge. I think that’s the most obvious pickup. It’s a big drop-off after that.
To get the states that they need elsewhere, let’s say it’s Ohio, let’s say it’s Texas, Iowa, Alaska – those are sort of the four others that are in this mix – you’d need to have a night where it’s something like Democrats favored by 8, 9, 10 points compared to the 2024 election, which is entirely possible. But that’s a big leap.
SIMON: There is a palpable anti-incumbent mood among voters. What do you think Republicans should be saying to those voters?
DONOVAN: I think it’s a fair point in the sense that Republicans won by virtue of the dissatisfaction of the electorate in 2024 and big promises about how things were going to get better. I think Republicans need to do two things. No. 1 – remind voters of the things they were able to do with the power that they had. I mean, things like the One Big Beautiful Bill, the tax cuts they were able to implement that included popular things like no taxes on tips, no taxes on overtime, no taxes on Social Security in the form of the senior deduction.
But I think the flip side of that is if they can point to their Democratic opponents and tie them to an unpopular national party, but particularly, paint their opponents as out of step with the voters, I think that’s the best chance. You have to demonstrate that you’ve done something with the power you’ve given and paint the picture of what it might look like in an environment where people like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan or the AOCs of the world are in positions of power. That’s the picture they need to paint to really fire up their own voters. It’s less about persuading independents and more the threat for Republicans is they need their voters to turn out. Otherwise, you’re in for a rough night.
SIMON: What do Republicans say about Iran?
DONOVAN: They need Iran to be put to bed in time for energy costs to come down. This is one where the message was never fully delivered to voters as to what we were doing and why. I think there’s a level of patience on the Republican side for what the president’s goals are there. I think there’s a little muddiness now that we’ve got a ceasefire that’s on and off. But I think the real question is, how quickly can we get something that sticks? If we’re still thinking and talking about Iran heading into the fall, I think that’s bad news for Republicans.
SIMON: Liam Donovan, who formerly worked for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Thanks so much for being with us.
DONOVAN: Thank you, Scott. Appreciate it.
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