We’ll look at how the war with Iran might shape the outcome for the 2026 Midterm elections, as well as how the new Democratic senate candidate in Maine might fare against the Republican incumbent.
Transcript
AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
With the resumption of U.S. attacks on Iran over the past couple of weeks, President Trump on Thursday told Axios that he was considering a, quote, “massive attack,” bigger than ever before on Iran. But by Friday, he seemed to change his mind, calling off new strikes on Iran, saying that negotiations to end the war, which started nearly five months ago, are ongoing. It’s hard to know where things stand, though, and here to tell us how all of this sounds to Americans is senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson. Good morning, Mara.
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Good morning, Ayesha.
RASCOE: So there’s a mounting political cost of the war with Iran as the midterms quickly approach, right?
LIASSON: Absolutely. The war has been unpopular all along, but new polling last week shows that the war has become less popular, even among voters who self-identify as MAGA, as Trump’s core supporters. There’s a new Politico poll that showed the number of MAGA voters who want the war to continue dropped by 13 points since May.
And even though Trump said over a year ago, when he first bombed Iran, that Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities were, quote, “totally obliterated” – he said at another point that the war has been a, quote, “total and complete victory, 100%” – the war is still going on, and voters don’t like it. Oil prices and fertilizer prices and food prices are still high because of the war, and that’s just bad for the president and his party in the midterms.
RASCOE: Is this war and all that comes with it actually creating daylight between President Trump and his party?
LIASSON: Some daylight. A small group of Republicans in the House, four of them, joined Democrats for the second time to vote in favor of a war powers resolution. And the problem for Republicans is not just that Trump can’t seem to find a face-saving way to end the war, but that he’s talking about Iran. He’s threatening Iran. He’s going to Dover to receive the remains of Americans killed in the war, instead of talking about what Republicans wish he would focus on, which is how he’s going to bring prices down.
And that really raises the question about whether Trump cares if Republicans win the midterms or not, since he’s doing so many things this year that hurt Republicans. And it’s not just the war, but new tariffs which also make prices go up. And even when Congress does something to address a problem Americans care about, like the high cost of housing – they passed a big bill with huge bipartisan majorities – Trump refused in protest to sign the bill. He let it become law without his signature, but he deprived Republicans of a big, splashy signing ceremony where they could take credit for doing something that voters want them to do.
RASCOE: So we’ve been talking about Republicans, but let’s turn to the Democrats. One of the races that they have to win is the Maine Senate race. They have now picked a new candidate there after the former candidate, Graham Platner, dropped out. Where do things stand in that race?
LIASSON: Democrats in Maine have coalesced behind Troy Jackson. He’s a former state Senate president. He’s now the new nominee. He has progressive policy positions very similar to Graham Platner, but he’s not as charismatic. He’s also a fifth-generation logger. He’s a union organizer, so he’s authentically working class.
And now he will face Republican Senate incumbent Susan Collins. She is the only Republican Senate incumbent up for reelection this year in a blue state where Kamala Harris won in 2024. And as you said, Democrats cannot win the Senate majority this year without winning Maine. Collins is also the chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. That’s very important in a small, poor state like Maine. There’s only 1.4 million people there. She brings a lot of money to the state.
And even though this looks like a very good Democratic year – Democrats are enthusiastic and motivated. They’re going to try to tie Collins to Trump. They’re going to say, she cut your Medicaid. She voted to close rural hospitals. She helped create the conservative Supreme Court majority that ended Roe – Collins has won tough races before, and she has a tremendous amount of money behind her. It remains to be seen if Troy Jackson can raise a lot from Democrats.
RASCOE: OK. Well, today marks 100 days until the midterms. With all that you just mentioned, how are things shaping up for both parties?
LIASSON: Well, Republicans have a lot of headwinds that they’re facing. The president is under 40% approval rating. Voters are sour on the economy. They don’t like the war. Tariffs are keeping prices up. So we would – in the past, we would say, wow, that looks like an environment for a big Democratic wave. But Republicans have a lot of structural advantages. They have much more money than Democrats. Their mid-cycle gerrymandering has reduced the number of competitive House districts to less than 20.
And Democrats do have organic advantages. They have enthusiasm and turnout, but they have a tough road ahead to get the Senate majority. And in the House, they only need a net pickup of three seats, which should be more doable.
RASCOE: That’s NPR’s Mara Liasson. Thank you so much, Mara.
LIASSON: You’re welcome.
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