LANSING MICHIGAN – AUGUST 4: Voters go to the polls to cast their ballots in the Michigan Primary election on August 4, 2026 in Lansing Michigan.
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Everyone got a little bit of what they wanted in Tuesday’s primary elections. It was a good night for the Democratic establishment, the progressives and Republican candidates endorsed by President Trump.
Some of the primary races for House and Senate in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and Washington are critical to which party will hold power in the next Congress. But one of the most hotly watched contests, the Democratic primary Senate race in Michigan, is still too close to call. The outcome of that race will show where a swing electorate stands ahead of the general election.
The results following the primary elections indicate a clear split between the establishment and progressive arms of the Democratic Party, while Trump continues to flex his power with Republicans. But voters also pushed back against Republican Party priorities in a pair of ballot initiatives in red states.
Progressive power tested
Both wings of the Democratic Party came out of Tuesday’s contests victorious. But establishment Democrats gained a few more wins than the progressive arm of the party.
Progressives largest test — Michigan’s Senate race— is yet to be determined. In a close matchup, former county health director Abdul El-Sayed was ahead of Rep. Haley Stevens early Wednesday morning.
The heated contest is important for progressive Democrats. If El-Sayed wins, it shows there is an appetite for populist policies, like Medicare for All, even in a swing state. Stevens, who flipped a suburban area in 2018, is backed by establishment Democrats and has taken a more moderate approach.
Either way, the race makes it clear there is a stark divide among Democratic primary voters. Whoever wins the primary will face a tough challenge from Republican nominee former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers.
LANSING MICHIGAN – AUGUST 4: Voters go to the polls to cast their ballots in the Michigan Primary election on August 4, 2026 in Lansing Michigan.
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Progressives did pick up a win in Michigan’s one true toss-up district. Progressive William Lawrence beat two other Democrats for the nomination. Lawrence is set to challenge first-term incumbent Rep. Tom Barrett in November.
Establishment Democrats got the candidates they wanted in a few key races. In Missouri’s 1st Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Wesley Bell won a rematch against former Rep. Cori Bush. Bell was backed by the national party, while Bush clenched endorsements from Democratic socialists and high-profile progressives, such as Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Bell will face Republican nominee Paul Berry in November, though Cook Political Report rates the district as solidly Democratic.
In Virginia, Democratic voters picked establishment-backed candidates for two House seats. The two seats, Virginia’s 1st and 2nd congressional districts, are ones Democrats hope to flip in November to inch toward the party’s goal of taking control of the chamber.
Money in politics a bit of a mixed bag
One of the rallying cries of the progressive left has been to “get money out of politics.” As the spending in Michigan’s Senate race ballooned, El-Sayed specifically criticized a pro-Israel political action committee, AIPAC, saying the organization had too much influence in politics. AIPAC and its aligned groups spent millions of dollars backing Stevens in the Democratic primary — money that it’s not clear paid off.
According to Open Secrets, a nonpartisan non-profit organization that tracks congressional candidate fundraising and spending, by mid-July, outside groups had spent $52 million in Michigan. That’s the most expensive use of outside spending apart from Texas’ contentious and protracted Senate race.
In the race in St. Louis, Rep. Bell’s commitment to fund humanitarian and military aid to Israel saw AIPAC back his candidacy in a safe blue seat, to prevent another candidate, who might be critical of Israel, from taking that seat.
Trump influence remains strong with Republicans
Trump-back candidates in Washington state, Kansas and Michigan won their party’s nomination.
In Washington’s 4th congressional district, Trump endorsed Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney. She beat 10 other candidates for the top spot. The wide-open seat is to replace outgoing Republican Congressman Dan Newhouse – one of the only Republicans still in office who voted to impeach Trump in 2021.
DEARBORN, MICHIGAN – AUGUST 04: A sign directs residents to a polling place August 04, 2026 in Dearborn, Michigan.
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McKinney received Trump’s endorsement but it didn’t come with any certainty. A Trump endorsed candidate has never won a general election in the conservative, rural district. Although, there is a possibility that could change since Newhouse is not on the ballot. McKinney will face Democrat John Duresky in November.
Trump-backed candidates also won the Republican nomination for governor in Michigan and Kansas. Democrats currently hold the office in both states, but Republicans are hoping to take the mansion back since the sitting governors are term-limited.
In Michigan, Republican Rep. John James won the nomination. He’ll face off against Michigan’s Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. In Kansas, Republican state Sen. Ty Masterson clinched the nomination. Masterson faces a challenge from Cindy Holscher, another state senator.
While Trump won both states in 2024, Michigan and Kansas have different electorates. Michigan is a swing state and Democrats have hung on to the office since 2018. Kansas, on the other hand, is solidly red. Even though there has been a Democratic governor running the state the last two election cycles, it’s unclear if that can happen again.
The three races show Trump’s grip on the Republican base, despite record-low approval ratings over the state of the economy and the US involvement in the Iran war.
Bad night for Republican-backed ballot initiatives
It was a tough loss for two Republican-led ballot initiatives in Missouri and Kansas.
No changes to the state supreme court bench are happening in Kansas’ future. Voters there rejected a Republican-backed proposal for state supreme court justices to be elected instead of appointed.
Currently, judges for the state’s highest court are appointed by the governor based on choices presented by a nominating committee. Most of the court has been appointed by the current and previous governors, both Democrats elected in the mostly Republican state. The court has upheld abortion rights among other stands objected to by Republican leaders.
Voters in Missouri voted against a proposal by the Republican-led legislature to make it harder for the public to pass future amendments to the state constitution.
After an amendment passed in recent years to end the legislature’s strict ban on abortion and another that expanded Medicaid, the legislature proposed a question on Tuesday’s ballot that would have raised the bar.
Currently, approval just requires a majority vote statewide. The defeated amendment would have required a majority vote in each of the state’s eight congressional districts. None of the recent amendments would have passed that were the threshold.
