Election Day is four weeks away and people are already voting in the 2026 midterms. Where do things stand in the big races across the country?
Transcript
LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Election Day is four weeks from today.
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
And a series of new polls are showing Democrats with a decided advantage in the midterms, but that’s not the whole story. In a few minutes, we’ll speak with Devan Barber, who leads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. We begin with the news.
FADEL: To help with that, who better than NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro? Good morning, Domenico.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Good morning, Leila.
FADEL: OK. So lots of polls flying around, and all of them seem to show Democrats doing well with voters. Just how confident should Democrats be?
MONTANARO: Right. Well, polls are only one factor in midterms. You know, you have to consider history, the national environment, the political structure, money and polling, and sometimes they’re all related. And most of those right now are favoring Democrats. And remember, though, polls aren’t predictive. They tell us what’s happening now, or rather during the dates when they were conducted with that particular sample and that polling outfit’s way of waiting. You know, people still have to vote. These aren’t prediction markets. And the prediction markets are really just trying to read the polls, where the money’s heading and what the news narratives are.
But what is clear, though, is that the needle has moved in Democrats’ direction over the last several months, especially in the Senate. And that’s about all that really should be taken away right now, big-picture.
FADEL: So you say the needle has moved in Democrats’ direction. What does that mean for the campaign and what might happen?
MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, no crystal ball here, but we can come up with some informed reasons for what might happen. First, we’ve seen the most movement in the Senate, with lots of races moving in Democrats’ direction. And that’s because of what look to be tight races in red states. So the Senate is within reach now for Democrats, which – I can hardly believe I’m even saying that because it was highly unlikely at the beginning of this cycle. But it’s not so far afield to say that Democrats are the clear favorites to win the House.
FADEL: OK. Why’s that?
MONTANARO: Well, I mean, you start with history and the national mood. In 18 of the 20 midterm elections since World War II, the president’s party has lost House seats – on average, about 26 seats. And it’s even worse when the president is unpopular, as President Trump is now. I mean, just a 37% approval rating, tied for the worst pre-midterm approval rating in the last half-century with George W. Bush back in 2006. Back then, Democrats won the House and the Senate.
Think about how people feel right now about the economy and the war in Iran. Those are both intertwined, as we know. And then think about how narrow House Republicans’ majority is. It’s only a few seats in the House. Democrats only need things to tip slightly in their direction for them to win, and the national mood’s certainly stacked against President Trump and the Republican Party. So Democrats have a clear advantage in the House, but there are some question marks about really how big those gains could be.
FADEL: Why the question marks?
MONTANARO: Well, I mean, there are a few things. The Democratic Party is unpopular. Now, that might matter less in a midterm, given that those are low-turnout affairs. Usually, the most fired up are the ones who turn out to vote, and anger’s a real motivator. The intensity of opposition against Trump is just super high right now. The percentage of people in our last NPR/PBS News/Marist poll who said they strongly disapprove of the job the president’s doing is 53%. That’s the highest it’s ever been. But the unpopularity of the party could still dampen enthusiasm for some of those voters who should lean in Democrats’ direction.
More importantly for why these gains might be limited is the structure. I mean, 25 of the 31 seats that Democrats are targeting are in places that Trump won in 2024. And as we know in this hyper-partisan era, it’s just hard to go into places like that and win in big numbers. You know, plus, Republicans were already somewhat insulated because of a landscape that favored them because of not just recent redistricting but decades of it. That said, things do tend to tip in one direction in the end in midterms.
FADEL: And what about the Senate? Lots of polling has come out showing Democrats competitive or leading in some pretty surprising places like Texas, Alaska, even Kansas.
MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, no doubt about it. I mean, Republicans are moving money out of a purple state like North Carolina and into red states like Kansas, when they’ve already been spending a ton in Texas. You know, that’s not what Republicans thought they’d be having to spend money on at the beginning of this election cycle. So Democrats have a shot now at winning the Senate, but they have to win in lots of places that they haven’t had a long history of success in. You know, does that mean that that’s what’s going to happen? No. But if you talk to operatives in both parties, Democrats certainly have the wind at their backs right now, it seems.
FADEL: NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Thank you, Domenico.
MONTANARO: You got it.
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